SYRIA ,EXIT OF ASSAD FAMILY REGIME
One by one,in few Asian countries governments have been overthrown rather fast in the last 3.5 years. Process began with Myanmar, to move to Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and was followed by Bangladesh.A week ago Syria, a harsh Police state too fell to rebels.
Thousands of political prisoners were held in Syria during five decades of authoritarian rule of Assad family. Assad regime, though authoritarian, was nonetheless, last of the secular regimes in the region.
In Myanmar, Army seized power in 2021 after ousting elected Government of NLD party run by Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi ,its General Secretary.
In Afghanistan it was the return of Taliban after abject surrender on 15th August, 2021 by the forces of President Ashraf Ghani, who flew away toTajikistan or Uzbekistan.
In Sri Lanka, in the backdrop of countrywide movement against shortage of essential commodities, democratically elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksha was compelled to resign and leave the country.Similar was the fate of elected P.M.Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, who took shelter in India, consequent upon a strong, semi-violent movement against reservations piloted by students and supported by fundamentalists.
Syrian President Fled To Russia
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria left Damascus early on 8th December, reached Hmermim Air base at Latakia and from there flew to Moscow. Maher, his younger brother flew a helicopter to Iraq and then to Russia.One maternal cousin of Assad was killed, while another was wounded.Assad’s wife and three children were already waiting for him.It was a hasty exit but he was given asylum quickly.It was prior to entry into Damascus by Sunni militants of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham(HTS), a Syrian branch of al Qaeda rebels.After resigning, Assad instructed his P.M.to discuss arrangements for a transitional government with HTS. Interestingly, HTS, remains designated as a terrorist organisation by U.S., U.K.,Canada, UNO and E.U.
Interest of Russia, U.S. & Iran
Russian Special Operation forces were sent to support Assad regime ,on the verge of collapse.When Assad had visited Moscow on 28th November, a day after rebels attacked Aleppo, Russia didn’t show any indication to help.But he didn’t convey it to his Army.
Rather, they were told that military support was coming.With the departure of Assad, Russia has begun evacuating its bases in West Syria, including air defence units from Masyaf and it has also closed its diplomatic mission in Damascus.Assad’s fall ended a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised immense influence across West Asia.
Assad had played a strategic part in anti-Israel ‘axis of resistance’ of Iran ,particularly in facilitating supply of weapons to Hezbollah, having a base in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.One never knows, USA with Israeli help may try to grab this vacant spot.U.S. Secretary of State has already called upon new Government to prevent Syria from being used as a terrorism base.
Syria, a Soviet Sattelite ?
Syria is officially known as Syrian Arab Republic.An ancient land with a rich history, it had different cultures and religions.It got de facto independence from France in April 1946. On 8 March1963 Baathist rule began when Hafez al-Assad seized power to become President.He preferred siding with Soviet Union to achieve parity with U.S. backed Israel.After his death, his son Bashar al-Assad took over as President.In a cruel act, Sunni Islami fighters have recently torched the mausoleum of Hafez al Assad.
Syria was the oldest ally of Soviet Union in Middle East.Soviet Union has supported Syria for long, recognizing its independence in1944.West has always seen Syria as a ‘Soviet sattelite’.It appears, being engaged with Ukraine, Russia could not provide support to Syria when it was facing a civil war.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham(HTS)
HTS, a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organisation involved in Syrian civil war since 2017 took just eleven days to achieve their target. Process began from November 27 with the capture of Allepo.Towns of Hama, Homs, Daraa and Sweida fell thereafter.Homs during early years of civil war , incidently, was known as the”capital of revolution”.
Assad’s army succumbed to a sudden collapse,as years of conflict with rebels had weakened them,while opposition groups had been training for years in anticipation of such an opportunity to overthrow the regime.HTS had the support of Islamic State(IS) and some other outfits.Recently IS has killed 54 soldiers loyal to Bashir al Assad in Sukhna. Apparently, they were fleeing from the country.
Least Resistance In Capital
In Damascus, there was no bloodshed when armed Sunni warriors of HTS took over Airport and National T.V. station.Sensing more freedom, people came out and waved Syrian revolutionary flags.
However, rush for supplies and withdrawal of cash also began.Some shops began selling their items thrice the normal price.Cheering with celebratory gun fire was also seen at main squares.
Thousands of Syrians also tried to leave through Lebanon border.
Some also ransacked the palace of President when Police and top officials vanished from the scene.Shops reopened, traffic returned to roads and sweeping of streets began only after three days of bloodless Coup.
The rebels in a message on Telegram stated “Today is the end of dark period and start of a new era for Syria.” The rebel Commander, Abu Mohammed-al Galani said over state T.V. “There is no room for turning back.The future is ours.” He asked his men not to do harm to surrendering people.
Poking Of Nose By Israel
Israel, a prosperous country and longest ally of USA has always followed a destructive foreign policy.It pokes people and collectivities unnecessarily and believes strongly in ignoring and disobeying UNO and international treaties.Without being a party to change of guard in Syria, Israel carried out air strikes across Syria on 10th and 11th December.Air strike on innocent people is most inhuman.Struggle for life never ends.
Its troops also entered the country, carried out heavy air strikes over Damascus & suburbs and destroyed missile launchers, helicopters and war planes.Many persons may have been trapped under the rubble.Israel had gone within 25 kms of Damascus.Its forces moved into a roughly 400 Sq.kms of Buffer Zone inside Syria.They defended themselves by stating that they were striking suspected chemical weapon sites and heavy weapons to prevent them from falling into hands of terrorists.
According to SOFHR, Israel has carried out more than 300 air strikes across Syria since rebels took over. No immediate comment has come from HTS.
According to Mayadeen T.V., Israeli troops were
advancing towards Syria-Lebanon border and were very close to Damascus.However, it was denied by Israel’s Army, which has asserted its dominance, time and again.
Further, Islamic State(IS) jihadis killed 54 soldiers of Syria.
Reaction of Countries
U.S. President has stated that fall of regime is a fundamental act of justice and a moment of historic opportunity for suffering people of Syria.
B.Netanyahu,P.M.,Israel has said that it is a direct result of blows, Israel has inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah.
Donald Trump,President- elect of U.S.contends that Assad has fled and Russia was not interested in protecting him.
Keir Starmer,P.M, U.K.has felt that their focus is on ensuring a political solution and restoration of peace & stability.
Chinese Foreign Ministry has called for restoration of stability & order in Syria and search for a political solution.
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry has urged all parties in Syria to unify objectives & priorities.
Saudi Arabia,Qatar and Jordan, in a joint statement have warned of risks of further instability and sought greater international humanitarian aid for Syrians.
India while monitoring the evolving situation in Syria, has advocated for peace. It has desired all parties to work for sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria.
Pertinent Issues & Lessons Drawn
Assad fled Syria after a lightening offensive by HTS which brought a sudden end to five decades of family rule.Question arises- Has balance of power in West Asia changed in the way Palestinians and Iran had planned.?
N.S.A.of U.S. feels that in the dramatically reshaped situation, Israel is strong and Iran is weaker.
Hafez al Assad ruled for 29 years, immensely troubling his people. And last 24 years of Baser al Assad’s rule saw multi sided civil wars, brutalisation of people, widespread poverty, killing of half a million people and desertion of homes by 12 million people. Hence, great deal of humanitarian issues have surfaced, which need to be responded to, quickly.
With the change of guard, a transitional government headed by Mohammed al -Bashir has taken over but ad hocism will prevail, as its tenure will be only upto 1st of March, 2025.
HTS is committed to the cause of Palestine but opposed to Iran.Earlier Iran was supplying weapons to Hezbollah through Syria.Assad’s fall, therefore, is a big blow to Iran. Pre- empting things, Iran has begun evacuating its military commanders and diplomats from Syria.
USA is closely monitoring the situation, now that impact of Russia and Iran is expected to reduce. U.S. Secretary of State has stated that U.S. hopes to ensure that Syria is not used as a base for terrorism and does not pose a’ threat’ to its neighbours.One may ask Why is U.S. bothered ?
There may be a shift in power balance in the region.Both Russia and Iran have lost the game to U.S. and its allies.While Iran’s position will weaken,Turkey will be actually firing the shots as they have backed HTS rebels.
New administration in Damascus should see to it that Syria does not become a safe haven for extremists.
As in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka,India can contribute in reconstruction efforts.There is a wide scope for India’s involvement in pharmaceuticals, agriculture,technology and Phosphate mines of Syria.
Alok K.Shrivastava
Ex-C.S,Sikkim