EVER TROUBLING COVID SYNDROME : ARE WE SUFFICIENTLY SENSITIZED ?
Even when hardly 500 confirmed Covid cases were registered, we declared a LockDown(L.D)on 23rd March’20.The second one was clamped on 4th April,2021.
Modus Operandi of the two differed. Idea has been common: Preacutionary Measures.Health Minister gave comprehensive justifications to Parliament.
The second L.D. became necessary as situation had deteriorated despite
introduction of two home produced vaccines from first week of January.
PEAK of cases on 7th May(4 Lakh,14 thousand and 188 )shook our Imagination.
Now looking at our persistent “Chalta Hai” attitude and manipulated insistence by traders together with old believers in social gatherings, we are knocking at the door of the citadel of Unavoidable Third Wave.
Taking further cue from battle scenario accross 2600 kms Durand Line,we seem to have entered a ‘cold war’ phase on Corona which was succeeded by a ‘de tant'(relaxation of strained relations).Summer is getting over,Monsoon in unpredictable MOOD continues but the ‘superspreader’ of festivals is also round the corner.
Janmastmi lasted one day after 100 years but its spirit may linger on,followed by Ganesh Chaturthi,Navratra and Vijaydashmi.Deepawali,Bhaiya Duj and Chhath are certain to follow suit.We need not stretch upto X’Mas or New Year, or else focus will go astray.
Do we remind ourselves of the Corona Protocol, which mandates us to wash hands,wear mask properly, maintain social distancing everywhere and take two doses of vaccine, if eligible and arrange First dose to Children,Pregnant and Left Outs.
To my humble understanding since Janata Curfew day on 22nd March, we need to shift focus from senior citizens to pregnant women and children by fully protecting them with adequate relaxation and interaction opportunity, with partial opening of schools.A newly Energised ‘Force’ of Earmarked health,transport and Police persons has to be kept ready,as present lot is working almost non-stop,since March last year.
We need to be very serious about the assessment of WHO, a few days ago that Indian Pandemic is going to get changed into an Endemic soon.
Various protocols, rules, regulations etc, need not be reiterated. These are supposed to be well understood, in the backdrop of our 18 month experience.Those who still pretend ignorance , shall have to be dealt with very firmly by ensuring action against erring Govt.servants, private sector personnel and CORRECTLY FINING offenders on roads, markets and Entertainment venues.
It will be also appropriate to look at situations in one or two states from South and North East to get a comparative picture of what led to continued spike in positivity rate of 10% in 64 Districts and 5 to 10% in 25 districts.
Home Secretary has sounded everything candidly in a meeting with concerned states. Further, the Health Secretary also on 26th August was emphatic that the second wave was not yet over and that we need to be cautious for any worsening of situation during forthcoming festivals which are going to be superspeaders, again. His message to Kerala appears timely & well intentioned.
North East : A Cause Of Concern
When major portions of country with the exception of Kerala , seem to be in Top Gear, few pockets of North East still Appear trailing behind. If one looks at Sikkim or Mizoram, these were very much under control to begin with.
MIZORAM did not record any Covid death for many weeks during the first wave. At present , the state has 57,962 daily cases with only 213 deaths (much less than 370 of Sikkim) but during 23rd to 30th August, on an average, 365.4 cases were recorded on a daily basis, thus showing an upward trend.
Zero case in SIKKIM on 23 May’20 reached a high of 353 daily cases on 5th June ’21 as against merely 523 in highly populated NCT Delhi or for that matter, Mizoram.
Similarly,Manipur and Meghalaya had to face rough weather initially but adequate control measures could be adopted subsequently.
ASSAM may have to be observed rather profoundly, may be, due to its large presence of “foreign” elements and hardly any convincing reporting like West Bengal and Bihar during their long Assembly Election processes..
SIKKIM
Though Sikkim has a small population and she had solid support in terms of L.D, night & day restrictions as also observance of social distancing in offices but distancing factors went haywire in respect of ‘could be’ postponed celebrations, festivals and public rallies. A short period interface with tourists failed to make any impact, both tariff and wage wise. Number of daily cases that had shot up at an approximated average of 230 in first ten days of June 2021 and much above, almost throughout July, began coming down only after 5th August .While in respect of Delhi, downfall began from first week of June.As on date, it hovers between 35 to 90 cases a day.
COMING to casualties,initial CFR of Sikkim was one of the highest in country but the slowed number now (370) can be considered rather high for a state whose estimated population will NOT be more than eight lakhs.The positivity rate,however, has come down from once high of 29.4 to 12.5% on 11th August.
BY DEPUTING ACS LEVEL OFFICERS in Charge of three Districts, RE-ENERGISED
CAMPAIGNS not merely routine awareness types, are urgently required with active support of D.C’s,SDO’s,BDO’s,Zilla & Gram Punchayats and SHO’s of Police Stations.Usual involvement of ANM’s, Anganwadi Workers and ASHA’s may have to continue but with upgraded contribution.
KERALA
More than 20% of state’s population covered with vaccination already and 38 %(including 70% of people above the age of 45 years) RECEIVING ONE DOSE, puts Kerala higher than the National average. Though the state appears to be Testing Well and reporting cases in a Transparent manner, yet its problems appear more than highlighted.
In January 2020,India’s first case was detected in Kerala when a medical student had returned from Wuhan.Though during first wave, state’s performance was appreciated, yet during second wave, there is hardly any perceptible sign of its Abatement.
Barely with 3% of country’s population,the state is recording 65% of total cases.But according to latest Anti Body Test Survey, ONLY 43% above the age of 6 in Kerala have been EXPOSED TO INFECTION as compared to 68 % ,all over country. Further the state’s CFR is 3rd of India’s national estimate and Mortality Under reporting is also possibly the lowest .
But the state’s main Focus has to be on Bringing Down 24 hours cases,which has crossed the threshold of 31,000 on three days in succession.It was highest in the state at,43,529(with 6053 deaths)on 12th May,2021.Having brought down drastically a high Positivity Rate of 29.75% ,total cases could be Also Brought Down to 19,894 by 30th May’21(Just 18 days).SO KERALA CAN DO IT.
States’s main problem of having majority of old people is often Ignored.Needless to say, they are more at Risk of Death, compared to other states.
On the mortality front , state has lost 20,313 persons.This is a very upsetting development even if Bakrid and Onam , both politically driven relaxed festivals seem to have abated the process.
Kerala, a role model in literacy, awareness, overseas remittance,connectivity,vaccination rate ,least wastage of vaccines etc. ideally should be a Model State. Its a different issue that its huge Bio-medical waste is also causing concern.
Following DIRECTIONS from Health Secretary on 27th August deserve utmost attention:
Ramp up containment measures, enhance number of tests considerably to check high transmission,Strengthen contact tracing,Home quarantine to be within accepted norms,Covid appropriate behaviour (CAB) to strictly enforce,Mass gatherings must be avoided, Streamlining of vaccine policy & action plan for each district And Five Fold Strategy of Test,Track,Treat,Vaccinate & CAB to ensure.
Fresh announcement of night curfew by Kerala and extension of same by Goa and renewed restrictions by West Bengal and J&K at this stage may not achieve results when 25% of recently installed Oxygen plants of the country are non-functional, reports of vaccine contamination have surfaced in Brazil and Japan,country has hit the target of one crore vaccinations on a single day only ONCE(came down to73.8 lakhs,next day) and escaltion in DOMESTIC VIOLENCE is becoming a matter of SERIOUS CONCERN..
We should not be only ALIVE to prevailing Covid situation in “lagging behind” states but also more than adequate precaution and attention will be necessary.
MAHARASTRA, after grand success story of Dharavi Slums and having 58% of the cases and 34% deaths of the country on 6th April,2021,has improved gradually and as on 29th August, its 24 hours cases have come down drastically to mere 4566.
So Sikkim, Mizoram,Manipur & Goa(37 % P.R.on 29 May) can also improve . Kerala MAY TAKE MORE TIME.
HEAVEN MAY NOT FALL, if we donot celebrate all festivals or birthdays or postpone weddings,apart from conforming to mandated protocols even after taking two doses and be prepared to take third dose also,if need be.
To wind up, to be introduced NASAL VACCIN, together with exclusive one for children below 12 years, may have to be popularised and facilitated .
Child was considered FATHER OF MAN.Now the same child is exposed to many miseries on account of closure of schools, lack of peer group company, coupled with absence of physical exercise.
The depressing plight of one lakh children,who have either lost both or one of the parents(NCPCR data to S. Court) need to be ADOPTED by Welfare Minded Affording Citizens (WMAC) and institutions.
Further, Voluntary Social Service(VSS) of Covid Patients in any form, should be taken up by those who had two doses of vaccine, LOOK RECOVERED & FEELING FIT FROM WITHIN .
Dr.Aaloc Srivastav,
IAS(R),
Ex-C.S,Sikkim
